IoT So Far.

Have been following IoT now for three years. And it is still too soon to say how it will all play out. Here are a few observations though...

The billions of device predictions are correct in their own way, but one can credit the original RFID IoT banner carriers with making that prediction twenty years ago. Logistics (having perhaps the smallest motes of IoT and widest field) has always been a great place for automation, and it is no where near over. And if one allows handheld devices (phones and tablets) to fall under IoT (some do not) then clearly.

Sensor and analytics players contend (though admittedly it is self serving *grin*) that the only really new parts of IoT are sensors (new ways of sensing) and analytics (new ways of understanding). These can both be covered by the two different definitions of "seeing" and thus the single banner of "Seeing the Unseen". And they are the extreme ends of the chain that one can call IoT.

What of everything in between? Contentious, but not innovative. Technology in LAN, WAN, databases, aggregation, platforms, visualizations - are all well understood.

So some idea of who will prosper? And for what..

• IBM IoT. Because they are IBM.
• AWS IoT. Price. Open to all comers.
• Microsoft Azure IoT. Compatibility.
• Google. Search.
• Apple. Style.
• Xively. Security.
• Thingworx. Mashup. Design.

And some in well entrenched verticals who roll their own:

• GE Industrial.
• Auto manufacturers.
• Aerospace.

Or who are new and forward looking and for whom it will "just be"... in AI, AR, VR, Robotics.

Flintstone Car - Environmental Comfort - Human or Renewable Powered.

For trips of under a block, walking (or limited mobility equivalent) makes sense. For short local trips of a few kilometers bicycling makes sense. Then comes car, bus and mass transit for a few hundred kilometers trip. After that long distance trains, ship and air come into play.

It has been said that daily commutes have a constant at 20-30 minutes (each way).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marchetti's_constant
These above fall into the class of how far can you get in ten to twenty minutes. Multi-mode trips (for a daily traverse from home to work) should have their aggregate be 30 minutes, and each mode thus have some fraction of the whole.

The issue is the elements and comfort. The long distance comutes have environmental control  (heating/cooling, sounds, smooth ride).

The short travel options are generally spartan. Though there are interesting exceptions. The interior of a mall provides a controlled shopping trip environment. Pedestrian tunnels used in northern climates are another example. Even the shade provided by buildings and trees, and humidity from fountains in arid climates provide a similarly controlled environment.

But in the absense of ubiquitous infrastructure, there is wearing a snow suit or a raincoat, or using shade parasols, or sticking to tree lined venues.

The point is that it is NOT really about energy efficiency or exercise or other costs related to energy and dollars, as much as it is about "comfort".

If one takes this a starting point then the conclusions one can get to are unusual... A safe velomobile, can perhaps nicely fill the needs for walking and biking distances.

The Flintstone car is not so crazy - with a canopy, radio, communications, and safety. If the friction and weight could be small enough, yet all the above be in place, and with modest boost in basic "foot and hand powered" efficiency, then it is almost rational.

[Update 140714: Some getting close: But powered.
Elio motors
LIT motors
Tuk Tuks (aka auto rickshaw) ]